3 Takeaways: Interview With Mohnish Pabrai (2021.03)

I had the distinct pleasure of interviewing Mohnish Pabrai, and wanted to share his timeless wisdom. 我有幸采访了Mohnish Pabrai，并希望分享他永恒的智慧。

We discussed a range of topics including the legendary value investor’s views on value investing (is it dead?), compounders, importance of entrepreneurship, having intestinal fortitude during market sell-offs, his investment in Turkey and more! 我们讨论了一系列主题，包括传奇价值投资者对价值投资的看法（它死了吗？），复利者，企业家精神的重要性，在市场抛售期间的勇气，他在土耳其的投资等等！

Who is Mohnish Pabrai?

Mohnish is the managing partner of Pabrai Investment Funds which he started in 1999 with $1Mn after selling his IT company, TransTech, for $20Mn. As of Q3’2020 that has ballooned to $469Mn due to Mohnish’s Munger/Buffett focused value investing style (BRK.B). Mohnish是Pabrai Investment Funds的管理合伙人，他在1999年以2千万美元的价格出售了他的IT公司TransTech后，以1百万美元开始了投资基金。截至 2020年第三季度这一数字已飙升至 4.69亿美元，由于 Mohnish 的芒格/巴菲特式的价值投资风格 （BRK.B）。

In other words, his fund has had a 12% CAGR vs. the NDAQ’s (QQQ) 8% in the same time frame. Mohnish is now extensively involved in philanthropy with Dakshana Foundation where he provides educational opportunities for gifted but underprivileged children worldwide. 换句话说，他的基金年复合年增长率为12%，而NDAQ（QQQ）的复合年增长率为8%。Mohnish现在广泛参与Dakshana基金会的慈善事业，在那里他为全球有天赋但贫困的儿童提供教育机会。

I learned of Mohnish a few years ago after reading the Forbes article, “How Mohnish Pabrai Crushed The Market By 1100% Since 2000.” The article gave me my first introduction to Mohnish’s proud Buffett/Munger copy-cat styled value investing. In the article, he cites the University of Nevada study by Martin and Puthenpackal showing how merely investing alongside Warren Buffett (after information about Berkshire’s buys and sells became public through the 13Fs) managed to beat the market by 11% every year over a 31-year period. 几年前，我在读了福布斯的文章“自2000年以来Mohnish Pabrai如何以1100%的速度碾压市场”后了解到Mohnish。这篇文章让我第一次了解到莫尼什引以为豪的巴菲特/芒格模仿式的价值投资。在文章中，他引用了内华达大学马丁和普滕帕卡尔的研究，表明仅仅靠模仿沃伦巴菲特一起投资（在伯克希尔的买卖信息通过13F公开之后）如何在31年期间每年靠11%击败市场。

To say the least, I was very excited to have the opportunity to interview Mohnish and soak in his knowledge. Here are my 3 key takeaways: 至少可以说，我很高兴有机会采访Mohnish并沉浸在他的知识中。以下是我的 3 个关键要点：

1. Maintaining Intestinal Fortitude 保持下跌时的勇气

I have been analyzing the greatest investors and found a common trait: temperamental control. While investing prowess is certainly important, the nature of the investor is equally, if not more, important. 我一直在分析最伟大的投资者，发现了一个共同的特征：情绪控制。虽然勇猛当然很重要，但投资者的个性同样重要，如果不是更重要的话。

Mohnish’s fund lost 65-70% of its value during the Great Financial Crisis, and even then, as a result of maintaining his conviction and buying aggressively in the trough, his fund has outperformed the NDAQ. I wanted to know how he remained calm. Mohnish的基金在金融危机期间损失了65-70%的价值，即便如此，由于保持信念并在低谷中积极购买，他的基金的表现也超过了NDAQ。我想知道他是如何保持冷静的。

He says, ‘Auction-driven markets are dictated by buying and selling in the short term, and in the long term they get weighed appropriately, i.e. based on what they are worth.’ 他说：“拍卖驱动的市场是由短期内的买卖决定的，从长远来看，它们会得到适当的权衡，即基于它们的内在价值。”

He goes on to explain that while his funds were down two-thirds in 2008, the intrinsic value of the fund itself was much higher and so he remained calm. In 2009 the fund value was up more than 110%. 他继续解释说，虽然他的基金在2008年下跌了三分之二，但基金本身的内在价值要高得多，所以他保持冷静。2009年，基金价值增长了110%以上。

If you are going to participate in auction-driven markets you have to understand that volatility is part and parcel of that. 如果你要参与拍卖驱动的市场，你必须明白波动性是其中的重要组成部分。

A few tips? 一些提示？

1. Avoid leverage at all times 始终避免杠杆

2. It is a temporary loss of wealth, do not panic. These tend to be the best time-periods to invest and improve your portfolio. 这是暂时的财富损失，不要惊慌。这些往往是投资和改善投资组合的最佳时间段。

3. Dollar cost average: In ’08-’09, commodity prices and stocks got crushed. “They went to numbers that made no sense.” So, he made a basket of commodity bets and kept on allocating 2% of the portfolio and all the 7-8 bets went up at least double and some even went up 7-8x due to the significant mispricing by the markets. 美元平均成本：08-09年，大宗商品价格和股票被压垮。“他们跌到了不可思议的地步。因此，他做了一篮子商品赌注，并继续分配投资组合的2%，所有7-8的赌注至少上涨了两倍，由于市场的重大错误定价，有些甚至上涨了7-8倍。

If wealth is lost, nothing is lost. If health is lost, something is lost. If character is lost, all is lost. 如果财富损失了，什么都不会丢失。如果生命值丧失，就会失去一些东西。如果性格丧失，一切都会丧失。

Of course, Warren Buffett has similar views. 当然，沃伦·巴菲特也有类似的观点。

You’ve got to be prepared when you buy a stock having them down 50 percent or more and be comfortable with it — as long as you’re comfortable with the holding. 当你购买一只下跌50%或更多的股票时，你必须做好准备，并对此感到满意——只要你对所持有的感到满意。

He also pointed out that in history the stock price of Berkshire Hathaway went down 50 percent for three times. “There wasn’t anything wrong with Berkshire when those three times occurred”, he said. 他还指出，历史上伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股价曾三次下跌50%。“当这三次发生时，伯克希尔其实本质上经营都没有任何异常，”他说。

2. Structuring a Concentrated Portfolio 构建集中投资组合

Buffett and Munger have famously been against portfolio diversification with Buffett stating that, “Diversification is a confession that you don’t really understand the businesses you own.” Munger was more direct: “What he is saying is that much is what is taught in modern finance courses is twaddle.” 巴菲特和芒格一直反对投资组合多元化，巴菲特表示，“多元化是承认你并不真正了解你拥有的企业。芒格更直接地说：“他的意思是，现代金融课程所教的很多东西都是蹒跚学步。

I was therefore curious to understand Mohnish’s thought process when it came to structuring his own portfolio. After all, Guy Spier and he had bought a lunch with Buffett for $650,000 in 2007. Mohnish has also had several interactions with Buffett and Munger throughout the years and received praise for his fund structure that does not charge any asset management fees. 因此，我很想知道Mohnish在构建自己的投资组合时的思维过程。毕竟，盖伊·斯皮尔（Guy Spier）和他在2007年以65万美元的价格与巴菲特共进午餐。多年来，Mohnish还与巴菲特和芒格进行了多次互动，并因其不收取任何资产管理费的基金结构而受到赞誉。

What struck me most is Mohnish’s attitude to investing: thinking of being a co-owner to a business he buys stock of. While this thought process isn’t ground-breaking, what is admirable is the execution of it. Here he brings up the natural instinct of entrepreneurs to concentrate risk and gives the example of Buffett (BRK.A), Gates (MSFT) and Walton (WMT). 最让我印象深刻的是Mohnish的投资态度：考虑成为他购买股票的企业的共同所有者。虽然这个思维过程不是开创性的，但令人钦佩的是它的执行力。在这里，他提出了企业家集中风险的自然本能，并举了巴菲特（BRK.A），盖茨（MSFT）和沃尔顿（WMT）。

Mohnish revealed that in his personal portfolio, he rarely has more than 2 or 3 stocks. In Pabrai funds, since it is other people’s money, Mohnish does not put more than 10% into a single stock at cost. However, there have been times where a single position or two positions have become 60 to 70% of the portfolio. His favorite hunting ground is in the convergence of his circle of competency and that of a great business’ undervalued stock. Staying within your circle of competence and really understanding “what you own and why you own it” (Peter Lynch) is key. Mohnish透露，在他的个人投资组合中，他很少拥有超过2或3只股票。在Pabrai基金中，由于是别人的钱，Mohnish不会将超过10%成本比例的股份投入到单一股票中。然而，也有时一个或两个头寸已经占投资组合的60%至70%。他最喜欢的狩猎场是在他的能力圈和一个伟大企业被低估的时候。保持在你的能力圈子里，真正理解“你拥有什么以及你为什么拥有它”（彼得·林奇）是关键。

3. Finding Long-Term Compounders 找到长期复利性增长股票

Mohnish became quite famous in the investment community for developing a checklist for investment. For those that are interested, he lays his framework out in his book (linked below). In fact, in one of the graduate finance classes I took, we were asked to model our own checklist off of Mohnish’s ideas. Originally Mohnish tried finding a ‘dollar bill and paying 40 or 50 cents’ and selling when it reverts to mean value; if the intrinsic value increased it could hopefully double. Mohnish因制定投资清单而在投资界非常有名。对于那些感兴趣的人，他在书中列出了他的框架（链接如下）。事实上，在我参加的一门金融研究生课程中，我们被要求根据Mohnish的想法来建模我们自己的清单。最初，Mohnish试图找到一张美元钞票只需付40或50美分的股票，并在它恢复为平均价值时出售;如果内在价值增加，它有望翻一番。

Another great quality that Mohnish consistently demonstrates is iterative thinking, and this is true of his checklist and investments that do not work. In 2020, he flipped his decades long investing career on its head and switched from finding value opportunities to great compounders. This eliminated the issue of selling when the value reverts to mean that Mohnish was not able to digest with some of the previous compounders he owned. Mohnish一贯表现出的另一个伟大品质是迭代思维，尤其是他的清单和投资不起作用时。2020年，他颠覆了自己长达数十年的投资生涯，从寻找价值机会转向伟大的复利者。这消除了当价值恢复平均价位时出售的问题，这意味着Mohnish以前无法消化和理解他之前拥有的一些复利对象。

So if you are right on the runways and long term value creation of fairly valued or slightly overvalued companies, you can make a 10 or even 100 bagger. Mohnish is certainly familiar with the latter, having two 100 bagger investments in 1999, one of which turned $15,000 into 1.5 million (in Satyam Computers) and the other turned $100,000 into $10Mn (CMGI). 因此，如果你在对的跑道上，遇到长期来看估值合理或略高估的公司，你可以赚10甚至100倍。Mohnish当然对后者很熟悉，他在1999年进行了两次100倍股的投资，其中一笔将15，000美元变成了150万美元（在Satyam Computers），另一笔将10万美元变成了1000万美元（CMGI）。

Giving the example of the Nifty 50, Mohnish explained the importance of a great compounder. If Walmart was to be included in the Nifty 50 and put 2% to it the index beats all the other indices over the time frame by a mile. If you took it out the Nifty 50 would underperform significantly. Such was the strength of a single stock. 以Nifty 50为例，Mohnish解释了一个伟大的复合机的重要性。如果沃尔玛被纳入Nifty 50并占2%，该指数在一段时间内比所有其他指数高出一英里。如果你把它拿出来，Nifty 50的表现会明显不佳。这就是单一股票的强势。

Mohnish admits that it took him 25 years to realize the importance of compounders. In part this thinking was brought about by Nicholas Sleep and Qais Zakaria who ran the Nomad Investment Partnership and earned a cult following for their big bet on Amazon (AMZN) and earning a 921% return versus 117% for the MSCI World Index from 2001 to 2013. Mohnish承认他花了25年的时间才意识到复利组合的重要性。在某种程度上，这种想法是由尼古拉斯·斯利普（Nicholas Sleep）和凯斯·扎卡里亚（Qais Zakaria）带来的，他们经营着Nomad Investment Partnership，并因其对亚马逊（AMZN）的大赌注而获得了狂热的追随者，并在2001年至2013年期间获得了921%的回报，而MSCI世界指数的回报率为117%。

Back to Nifty 50. Today, even if 4 out of 10 bets do not work and you bought at Nifty 50 level highs (think 50, 60, 70 P/E multiples), then you will have made a significant amount of money with a 40% error rate if you found great compounders. In the case of Nifty 50 even if you were 2% correct you would still do well i.e. with a 98% error rate. The key to doing this and remaining invested is thinking like a business owner. Mohnish points to the fact that other than the Walton family, no single investor has held onto the Walmart stock since its IPO though the tea leaves showed that this would be a great business with compounding power and significant moat. 回到漂亮的50。今天，即使 10个赌注中有 4 个不起作用，并且您在 Nifty 50 高点位买入（想想 50、60、70 倍市盈率倍数），那么如果您找到出色的复利者，依然可以以40% 的错误率赚到一大笔钱。在Nifty 50的情况下，即使您正确率为2%，您仍然会做得很好，即错误率为98%。做到这一点并保持投资的关键是像企业主一样思考。Mohnish指出，除了沃尔顿家族之外，自沃尔玛首次公开募股以来，没有一个投资者持有沃尔玛股票持股直到现在，尽管它表明这将是一项具有复合力量和重要护城河的伟大业务。

Mohnish goes on to give an example of an investment in 2019 of a shipping company in Turkey. He now owns 33% of the company, buying at 5 cents on the dollar and has already made 7-8x in dollar terms in 20 months. But looking forward 10 to 20 years, how much can the management increase intrinsic value? He estimates in a bear case it could triple. His job? “I have to just sit on my ass.” Mohnish继续举了一个2019年土耳其一家航运公司投资的例子。他现在拥有该公司33%的股份，以每美元5美分的价格购买，并且在20个月内已经赚了7-8倍。但展望未来10到20年，管理层能增加多少内在价值？他估计，在熊市的情况下，它可能会增加两倍。他的工作？“仅仅只是坐在那里。”

If you love watching paint dry, then this is the business for you. 如果您喜欢看着油漆变干，那么这就是您的对象。

To End

In the open Q&A section of the talk, Mohnish delved into his macro outlook (SPY), investment in Turkey, brief thoughts on GameStop (GME) and Twitter (TWTR), his screening process, circle of competence, power of compound interest & Mr. Money Mustache. 在演讲的公开问答部分，Mohnish深入研究了他的宏观展望（SPY），对土耳其的投资，对GameStop（GME）和Twitter（TWTR的简要想法），他的筛选过程，能力圈，复利的力量和市场先生。

Mohnish’s combination of wisdom, experience, humor and humility makes this talk a must watch! You can find the full talk with Mohnish here.Mohnish的智慧，经验，幽默和谦逊的结合使这个演讲成为必看的！你可以在这里找到与Mohnish的完整谈话。

Source: Author

To learn more about Mohnish and his style of investing I recommend his YouTube Channel, acclaimed book, “The Dhandho Investor” and “Mosaic“, and his blog “Chai with Pabrai (Tea with Pabrai).” 要了解更多关于Mohnish和他的投资风格，我推荐他的YouTube频道，广受好评的书“Dhandho Investor”和“Mosaic”，以及他的博客“Chai with Pabrai （Tea with Pabrai）”。

I would sincerely like to thank Patrick Gregory and Mohnish Pabrai for helping make this happen. I certainly learned much, as did my friends at the fund. 我衷心感谢Patrick Gregory和Mohnish Pabrai帮助实现这一目标。我当然学到了很多东西，我在基金的朋友们也是如此。

Link:3 Takeaways: Interview With Mohnish Pabrai | Seeking Alpha

Author: Anay Gawande

I am a rising senior at Babson College, interested in the stock market. I’m also a Portfolio Manager for the Babson College Fund that manages $5Mn by conducting bottoms-up, fundamental equity我是巴布森学院（Babson College）的一名冉冉升起的大四学生，对股市感兴趣。我还是巴布森学院基金的投资组合经理，该基金通过进行自下而上的方式管理5百万美元资产。